Indonesia and the EAEU: On the Brink of a Trade Surge with a New Free Trade Agreement

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, is taking a significant step toward realizing its global trade ambitions through a free trade agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This landmark deal between Jakarta and the five EAEU member states — Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan — is expected to bring about radical changes in trade relations between the two blocs. According to the optimistic projection of Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso, annual trade volume could increase by as much as 100 percent following the ratification of the agreement — an exceptionally ambitious target that nonetheless reflects the scale of the opportunity. This partnership is not merely about facilitating the exchange of goods; it aims to build a strategic bridge between Asia and Eurasia, opening new horizons for both sides.

Opportunities Unlocked by Tariff Elimination

One of the most important pillars of the free trade agreement is the elimination of customs duties. Indonesian products will be able to enter EAEU markets with a zero-percent tariff, significantly enhancing their competitiveness. The EAEU region, encompassing around 180 million consumers, represents a vast market for the Southeast Asian nation. Indonesia brings a strong portfolio of key export products, including crude palm oil, textiles, processed goods, agricultural produce, and fisheries products — all of which enjoy solid demand across EAEU member states. This tariff-free access benefits not only exporting companies but also consumers, who gain more affordable access to Indonesian goods. At the same time, Indonesia remains a significant importer from the region, sourcing commodities such as wheat and fertilizers from EAEU countries, thereby reinforcing mutual interdependence and trade stability.

Expanding Trade Volumes and Strategic Relevance

Current trade figures already paint an encouraging picture. In 2024, total trade between Indonesia and the EAEU reached USD 4.1 billion. Within this, Indonesian exports to the EAEU amounted to USD 1.5 billion, marking a 36 percent increase year-on-year. While Indonesian imports from the EAEU slightly exceeded exports at USD 2.4 billion and registered a 4 percent decline, the implementation of the agreement is expected to balance flows and intensify trade in both directions. This growth potential carries not only economic but also strategic significance. Indonesia seeks to diversify its export markets and reduce reliance on traditional trading partners, while the EAEU gains access to a stable and expanding supplier base from Asia, strengthening its economic security.

Next Steps and the Outlook Ahead

The signing of the agreement is expected to take place on December 20–21, 2025, during the EAEU summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia. The document will be formally signed by trade ministers in the presence of heads of state. Following this, ratification by the national legislatures of the member states will be required. Indonesia and the EAEU are already working closely together to finalize the precise signing date. This free trade agreement represents more than a commercial transaction; it is a long-term commitment to shared prosperity and deeper diplomatic ties. Stronger economic linkages between Indonesia and the EAEU could act as a catalyst for broader interregional cooperation, supporting stable and sustainable development in an increasingly interconnected global economy.